Read Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Yuri G. Raydugin

4.9/5 (12634 ratings)

Description:Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error.In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies. To get started finding Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

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ISBN: 0192582658

Description: Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in the majority of cases. Apparently, these methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects, the components associated with structural and delivery complexity are often overlooked.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on the most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A new methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as "non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis" (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable of forecasting project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects, including notorious projects-outliers, and it has a much lower rate of systematic error.In this book, the power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects, and the results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.We have made it easy for you to find a PDF Ebooks without any digging. And by having access to our ebooks online or by storing it on your computer, you have convenient answers with Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies. To get started finding Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies, you are right to find our website which has a comprehensive collection of manuals listed.
Our library is the biggest of these that have literally hundreds of thousands of different products represented.

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Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies

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